Wednesday, October 1, 2008

My sagacious prediction for Nov. 4

The '08 presidential election results will look very similar to the '96 presidential election results.
Yea, it's inevitable as long as everything remains on an even keel. As long as Obama doesn't do something totally unforgivable. . .

We can expect to see a popular vote with the democratic candidate Barack Obama getting between 5 and 10% more votes than Puffy McBush. I suspect it will be closer to 10 and 5.

The electoral tally will have Obama with over 300 and Puffy with less than 200.

That's my feeling as of right now.

13 comments:

rainywalker said...

Interesting prediction and I agree on the Electoral College. But just for thought, think of all the fun if it ended up 269 to 269. Congress and the House could solve that several ways. One could be Obama for president and Palin as vice-president according to the Constitution. Something to think on!

crystal dawn said...

I hope Obama can keep the spread he's got right now. I believe he has to maintain at least a 6 point lead to win (err..avoid another stolen election).

SagaciousHillbilly said...

Rainy, Can a president fire the vice president?
If all goes well tonight. . .

SagaciousHillbilly said...

You're probably right CD. Also, he needs that lead in the polls to overcome the people who are going to walk into the voting booth and at the last minute just won't be able to vote for the black guy. . .
You might laugh at that idea, but I believe there is an element out there that has the best of intensions, but when it comes right down to it, they just won't be able to do it. . . I actually feel sorry for those people. They know their racism is wrong, they want to overcome it, but they just can't.

arrozconpollo said...

Sagacious, Obama is employing the right tact in dealing with the borderline racists. He's being nice and respectful and mainstream. Best hope for getting the wafflers to vote for him.

I think the "bradley effect" is bullshit and just the next excuse in line if the polls flip on election day and McCain wins. They used the "Bush voters won't talk to exit pollsters" lie last time, trust me, they are working on their excuses ahead of time.

themom said...

The "McCain" stir is taking place in Ohio right now, similar to the machinations of Bush, when OH votes were stolen. But I am almost sure (fingers crossed) tha Ohio will go blue this time around. I agree with your prediction, but I'm always scared when I get to confident. Let's see how the debate goes tonight - I am sure Palin will freak.

crystal dawn said...

Yes that is true hillbilly. There is almost a subconcious reflex to be racist, even tho they refuse to accept it.

A good example of this is talking to people in WV. I do taxes for people and it was surprising to see how many of them wanted to talk politics after looking at their returns. They would say things like, "I just can't believe what this country is becoming." And I'd think, yeah... gas prices, war, health care, the economy...
And they would then say, "I just don't know if I can vote for a black man." I was shocked they admitted that.

Just shows you that despite the ills that have happened in this country, and despite Obama being far superior to McCain in every way, there are those who just can't vote for him based on race. Sad.. very sad :(.

But back to the polls. Remember all these numbers are taken from likely voters or voters that have voted in the past. They are not including all the newly registered voters such as young people and many minorities. This could turn into a blowout if vote suppression doesn't take hold like it has in the past.

crystal dawn said...

arroz, IF, and that's a big if, McCain wins, they will use the woman and evangelical vote to excuse the steal.

rainywalker said...

No, but I'm sure we won't have to worry about that. At the rate things are going Obama is going to have to sell his one car and pay the electric bill in the White House.

MacDaddy said...

"Also, he needs that lead in the polls to overcome the people who are going to walk into the voting booth and at the last minute just won't be able to vote for the black guy."
sagacious: That's the damn truth. But they way they are squandering our money with bailouts and pork barrel spending, Obama may have to sell off Air Force One and drive to speeches in that one small car he has with security crowded in the back.

tanstaafl said...

Doom and gloom.

My best guess is it all hinges on Pennsylvania and Virginia. Ohio will do their usual flop back to the Republican ticket. Virginia very well may also. But Pennsylvania is a tough nut right now for both Obama and McCain. McCain is not liked and Obama has not really treated the bulk of the voters in PA very well. Obama leads in the polls there, but I'm not sure he can hold it if McCain and Palin put on a heavy shove, especially in western PA where it can go heavily Republican.

tanstaafl said...

Doom and gloom.

My best guess is it all hinges on Pennsylvania and Virginia. Ohio will do their usual flop back to the Republican ticket. Virginia very well may also. But Pennsylvania is a tough nut right now for both Obama and McCain. McCain is not liked and Obama has not really treated the bulk of the voters in PA very well. Obama leads in the polls there, but I'm not sure he can hold it if McCain and Palin put on a heavy shove, especially in western PA where it can go heavily Republican.

themom said...

Aha, how about McCain pulling out of Michigan - they figure there is no hope there at all - prob right.